3. Accountants dominate traders

When I began as a trader in horse racing in the 1990s, we had no Betfair to guide us. Every race had to be priced up everyday from a knowledge of the formbook, a feel for stables with runners and an idea of what races were ok to play strongly in and those that weren’t. We had access to an industry tissue, but in all truth it had been copied out of the Sporting Life with one or two minor adjustments, and while it gave a framework it was hardly a reliable guide to the actual chances of the runners.

We put up prices and felt out the markets, got to know our punters (the hot ones were the best in fact as we tried to sculpture the books to “be with” their early bets), and moved the prices dramatically and often.

I remember well weekly “trading meetings” where traders would demand winning accounts were kept open as they were vital to guide our markets and helped shape them in the way we wanted. Occasionally we would limit the size if players began to get away too much, but it was always done after a discussion with the punter and acceptable terms were reached. Pro players such as Steve Gough regularly won over £30,000 a year from the company, but it meant our cards were marked and we would rarely lose when he found a winner.

These days, the numbers men are firmly in charge. A winning bet, beating the price, or an arb is enough to have one’s account immediately closed or factored to death. Short-termism has dominated the mindset of people who’s hefty salaries are dependent on margins. Betting exchanges have removed the need to formulate prices or trade markets, the skill has been removed completely and now only proven “mugs” will be allowed the rope to hang themselves with. Anyone with half a clue is going to pop up on a weekly print out at some point, provoke discussion and see his stakes reduced immediately to 25pc or less. This basically has the immediate affect of losing that punter. But in all truth that is exactly what the numbers men want.

4. The standard of traders, who are now paid peanuts, has declined rapidly

Once a skilled and highly valued profession, traders are now recruited for peanuts and in return the companies have by and large got the monkeys. “Betfair watcher” would be a better description of most young, fresh faced traders these days. Very little knowledge or skill is needed to go 6/4 when it is 2.62 on Betfair, indeed many companies now have completely automated trading platforms that mirror the exchange led prices totally. It has wiped out the arbers, but it has also completely lost an entire generation of punters directly to the exchanges themselves.

This is seen best by the demise of the on-course betting industry, who have for the past decade shot themselves completely in the foot by embracing exchanges, hedging into them and getting their entire market prices directly from them. Unsurprisingly punters have voted with their feet. Why on earth would any astute backer give himself two hours in the car, all the expense involved just to secure a price that he could beat by sitting at home on Betfair?

Basically bookmakers have been trying to sell apples at the racetrack for £1 each, when Betfair will do home delivery for 90p. No wonder the on-course game is completely on it’s knees. As Barry Dennis recently admitted on twitter: “I was one of the first to embrace exchanges but I now realise it was a mistake”.

Quite an admission from the man who probably did more to promote Betfair than anyone in the early years.

5. The punter has never had it so good

The flip side to all these complaints about restriction and closure is that there is now a growing and vocal army of “professional punters” who make their living from betting. The huge competition for turnover has meant that the value available is unbelievable. At the recent Cheltenham festival the prices offered were frequently over-broke, and while gimmicky offers such as Corals Even £10 or £20 about 1/4 chance Sprinter Sacre, often cause more anger than goodwill, it has to be said that overall it has to be good for the punter.

The modern punter has to adapt, accept that he will be factored and closed on a regular basis, and find other avenues to secure the price which he desires. It is pointless moaning about it (indeed some pro’s almost take pleasure in telling the world about it in an ego-boosting way).

The bookmakers are not there for anyone’s benefit other than their own. Once realising that and the type of punter they are after, then the pro-backer can adjust accordingly and find ways around it.

Why do online bookmakers limit customer accounts? In the pursuit of beating the bookies, punters can find their accounts factored before they get too far on top. Today on the blog Stephen gives us five reasons why some bookmakers are quick to limit your action.

It is the all too common a cry amongst punters across the country, or at least any punter with a modicum of skill or discipline about their betting: “I can’t get a bet on”…”I was offered £3.22 when I wanted £25 each-way”…”They offered me SP only and then didn’t move the price”.

So what is behind this crackdown on punters that firms view as so hot and lethal that they cannot even lay them a half decent bet at the advertised price? Here I will offer five explanations from both sides of the fence taking a look at this ever increasing problem for all punters.

1. The arrival of high margin products such as casino and games

Games and casino products online, or FOBT’s (Fixed Odds Betting Terminals) in betting shops, make a very high margin and it is absolutely guaranteed every single day. These new products are the dream for all people high up in bookmaking companies, as the more ingenious and attractive they are, the more money they rake in.

Why on earth try to grow horse racing turnover when you are stepping into a hornets nest of shrewdies and arbers, when you can happily and cheaply “win” 10-20pc of your gaming turnover? No need for trading meetings, culling accounts, customer service confrontations or complex decision making, just pay the IT technicians to dream up another variation on roulette or poker to satisfy the ever-growing worldwide market in “recreational punters”.

2. The internet has made us all disloyal “price tarts” in the eyes of bookmakers

With the advent of betting exchanges and the explosion in low margin bookmakers such as Pinnacle or SBO, it has become possible for price savvy punters to have bets without any margin against them. They are basically getting Evens about a coin-toss and, at times by shopping around and trading effectively, they are getting 11-10.

Running a bookmaking business is amazingly expensive. A fledgling firm that I worked for in Malta had enormous wage bills/IT bills/customer service department etc etc. In relation to its small turnover on sport, it had no chance whatsoever of coming close to breaking even. The business model was completely reliant on the games to pay the bills. Putting up prices on well known price-comparison sites, merely locks in an army of “arbers” to swarm all over the site if a price ever slips over the “exchange” price. It was a recipe for one sided books on the wrong side of the market.

In short it is virtually impossible to survive as a genuine bookmaker unless one has a huge army of loyal, inelastic punters who just want a bet on what’s on TV. Playing against a move on Betfair can only end one way, with the company losing money and the “winning” punters getting their accounts chopped to pieces at a fraught Monday morning trading meeting.

Cultivating a recreational punting base has become the aim of go-ahead firms such as Bet365 and Ladbrokes. Take a look at their adverts in the middle of every televised match. They are aggressively courting the 20 year old male, beer in hand, watching the game with his mates. He might think 5-1 about Wayne Rooney scoring next is an attractive price for his £20 interest bet (it might be 8-1 on Betfair but then he hasn’t heard of Betfair yet) and these are exactly the high profit, multi-sport betting punters that all companies love.

Put simply, a bookmaker would love to take a total £30,000 at 5-1 on Rooney scoring next when they know the correct price is much bigger, and furthermore, by having a bet of this nature, a punter is flagging himself up as exactly the type of player that the firms want. If this huge largely untapped market is out there and can be captured, why do firms such as Bet365 need to play the warm people at all? The truth is they don’t.

Nearly every article written about sports gambling assumes the bettor is betting through online sportsbooks or in Nevada. While many sports bettors do wager through those outlets, there’s a huge number of gamblers who wager through their local bookies, especially on the East Coast on the United States.

There are certain advantages and disadvantages of dealing with local bookies, especially with contrasted to the ability to place sports legally in the state of Nevada, but the differences aren’t nearly as great compared to wagering online, as both are currently deemed illegal in the U.S.

One of the great misconceptions about placing sports bets online is that it is safer than dealing with local bookies, but there are numerous online sportsbooks that are notorious for not paying customers. Before sending any online sportsbooks your money, it’s worth spending a few minutes of your time to check them out. Read How to Choose an Online Sportsbook.

A number of local bookies are as trustworthy with your money as your local bank. If you’ve dealt with the same bookie for a number of years and have never run into any sort of problems, the chances are you won’t have any problems in the future.

The easiest way to avoid problems is simply to ask your bookie to read every wager back to you after you’ve placed your bets. Most of them do this any way, but it never hurts to do it again.

One of the key differences in dealing with local bookies, as opposed to online sportsbooks or wagering in Nevada, is that you generally are not required to put the up the money at the time you place your wager, something that can be a blessing or a curse, depending on the situation. This one difference has caused the ruin of more sports bettors than any other single factor, as it becomes too easy to chase losses or bet over your head. If your bookie lets you wager on credit, a little discipline is needed.

Another disadvantage in dealing with local bookies is the smarter ones will soon be able to pick up on your betting habits. If you play almost all favorites, they will soon know and the line you receive is likely to be a half-point or a point higher than other bettors. The same holds true with underdogs and totals. If your bookie can get an edge, they’re likely to take advantage of it.

Sports bettors can gain a bit of an advantage in knowing the correct odds on a given game and comparing that with the line they receive. Many locals, as they are commonly referred to, are known to shade the line one way or another, especially if they are located near a major city. A bookie in Philadelphia will almost always have the point spread on the Eagles or 76ers a little skewed towards the home team than it should be, as they know most bettors will be backing the home team.

If you have a good relationship with your bookie, don’t be afraid to ask for a half-point on occasion. If you’re a long-time bettor, many will give it to you without much protest.

Your bookie may also be willing to let you in on his action, depending on your relationship and the length of time you have bet with them. Many times you can ask who the bookie needs, meaning they have plenty of bets on the other side, and if you happen to like the same side they need to cover, they will let you wager at even money and forgo the usual 11-10 odds. With the increased competetion of online sportsbooks, many bookies are willing to make some small concessions here and there, especially if you’ve proven to be a loyal customer over the years.

Dealing with a local bookie certainly has its pros and cons, but by adding a few little tips to your wagering, can work out to your advantage.

Most punters know what a football accumulator is and how to do an accumulator but do they know how to get the best odds?
This article is to help with football accumulator tips and how to get the best betting odds for them.

Whilst all bookmakers will offer odds on all games, they will be better priced on some games and maybe offer worse odds on others. Analysing all these different bookmakers, even on a betting odds comparison site will be a time consuming task. So how can we make the job easier?

Firstly I am personally not a huge fan of accumulators as a betting strategy for football, or for any sport for that matter, however, an accumulator will cover and number of selections from two, known as a double, three or upwards.

The more selections in the accumulator, the higher the odds and the more difficult it becomes to find where to get the best accumulator odds. To simplify this process you can head over to the “Valuechecker Betting Accumulator Tool”.

Here you can use the drop down menus to select the sports and the markets you wish to play, and make your selections by clicking on them. They then go into your shopping basket. Change markets, sports or days even and continue making your selection until all the picks you have for your accumulator have been added.

Click on your shopping basket now and it will compare all the prices for the bets you want to make and highlight the best odds for each bet and finally the best odds for the accumulator you want to place with each bookmaker.

In the example below you can see I have selected the four matches from the League 2 play-offs and the Europa League

The bookmakers are listed along the top of the screen and the odds for each match displayed. Where they appear “bold”, it indicates the best odds available for the bet.

And here is where it gets clever, it then uses the table to compile the odds for your accumulator and at the bottom of the page, displays the multiple odds.

In this example, 9.66 are the best odds available for the four-fold bet from either Bet365 or BetVictor. When compared to the 8.62 odds available from Sportingbet, you can immediately see the benefit of using this tool to find where your football accumulator is best placed to get you the best odds value. What’s more, if you have an account with these bookmakers you can simply click once on the odds to go straight to your account to place the bet before the odds chance!

Houston arrives in Los Angeles locked in a battle with the Portland Trailblazers for home court advantage in the first round of the playoffs.

The Rockets (51-25) lead Portland by a game and a half in the Western Conference after stringing together two consecutive wins that included a 130-125 overtime win over Denver last time out.

For the season, Houston is averaging 107.1 points on 47.3 percent shooting while giving up 102.4 points on 44.1 percent shooting.

James Harden, who is averaging 31 points in his last five games, led the way with 32 points and 10 assists for the Rockets in their win over the Nuggets, and played their fifth straight game without starters Dwight Howard and Patrick Beverley.

The Houston defense in the meantime has allowed five straight 100-point performances and will need to step it up if they’re going to make a serious championship run and get by the Lakers.

Meanwhile, Los Angeles’ season has gone from bad to worse, as it has lost four straight and 10 of its last 13 games.

The Lakers (25-52). like Houston, don’t seem to have much of a problem scoring, as they average 102.5 points on 44.9 percent shooting. However, like the Rockets, they do have a problem defensively, surrendering 109 points per game on 46.6 percent shooting.

Making things even worse for the Lakers is the fact that the entire roster seems to be banged up, including Nick Young who scored 18 points off the bench before leaving with a left knee injury midway through the fourth quarter against the Clippers last time out.

Young is expected to play in this game even however, and will hope that the Lakers can compliment his offensive play by beefing up their poor defense, which has allowed 19 of their last 22 opponents to top 100 points.
Matt’s Free NBA Prediction:

The Lakers are probably going to lose this one, but I’m not sure if it will be by 10.

These are two teams that do a lot of scoring, but don’t play too good on the defensive end.

I expect to see a ton of points, but I still don’t see this game going over the total number.

Rockets 109, Lakers , 105

BETTING PREVIEW

It’s hard to make any case for Malaga, as Barcelona will surely bulldoze over them, despite being the away team. Since winning promotion back to the top flight, Malaga have lost all 8 games against Barcelona.

Malaga’s last 4 meetings against Barca have seen them lose 4-1 on 3 occasions and 3-1 the other. That’s a lot of goals conceded and it may well continue because Barca’s recent matches have seen them score 4 against Atletico, who are 2nd in the league, 3 against Valladolid, 4 in beating Espanyol and most recently a 5-0 hammering of Cordoba, when it wasn’t necessary.

This is a ruthless Barcelona side that likes running up the score and padding Messi’s numbers.

Speaking of Messi, he has scored a hattrick in his last 2 games against Malaga, so you’d fancy him trying really hard at a hattrick of hattricks! But wait, Malaga are actually doing well. They are in fact 4th in the table as things stand, and their defence is better than Barcelonas!

While Barcelona have conceded 19 goals, Malaga have shipped just 13, less than any other side in La Liga. In fact, 2 of those goals came as own goals, so teams have really not been able to break through them as much as you’d expect, and so this game looks like a bit of a tough one for Barca, who have gone through previous opponents like a hot knife through butter.

Malaga are on their best ever La Liga run, and the 31 points they have after 18 games is the most they have ever achieved at this stage. They have already beaten Real Madrid here 3-2, and come into this off a 4-1 Copa Del Rey beating of Eibar.

SEASON STATISTICS

Malaga (4th) :::: 9-4-5 28:13 —- HOME 6-1-2 23:9
Barcelona (1st) : 17-1-0 61:19 — AWAY 9-0-0 32:12

THE BETTING VERDICT

However, Malaga did lose 1-0 to Depor, who are a bottom half side. Malaga may do well against most teams this season, but Barcelona are no ordinary team, boasting a quite ruthless offence that will find a way to outscore any opponent, no matter how many they score.

I was thinking of Messi to score 2 goals or more, which you can get at 2.60. However, I’ll respect Malaga a bit for what they’ve done this season on defence, and instead take them to score at least a goal in this match, as I see Barcelona winning but not without a fight.

English Premier League — Match Time：11/30/2013 23:00
West Ham United VS Fulham Head to Head | Statistics| Odds
—————————————————————————————-
Team news:
Huge problems for both teams before this meeting. For West Ham with different injuries are Mladen Petric (forward – 3 apps), Alou Diarra (defensive midfielder – 1 app), Winston Reid (defender – 10 apps), Ricardo Vaz Te (attacking midfielder – 7 apps, 2 goals), Razvan Rat (defender – 8 apps) and Andy Carroll (forward). The visitors from Fulham are with 4 injured players – Hugo Rodallega (forward – 5 apps), Damien Duff (attacking midfielder – 6 apps), Brede Hangeland (defender and captain – 8 apps) and Matthew Briggs (defender – 2 apps), whyle Sascha Riether (defender – 10 apps) is suspended.
-

Match facts:
Last season in the meetings between these two clubs we saw 2 home victories – 3-1 for Fulham and 3-0 for West Ham. In the last 5 years there was 10 head to head matches – 6 victories for the hammers, 2 for Fulham and 2 draws.
-

Probable lineups:
West Ham – Jaaskelainen, O’Brien, Collins, Tomkins, Demel, Diame, Noble, Cole, Morrison, Downing, Nolan

Fulham – Stekelnburg, Zverotic, Senderos, Amorebieta, Richardson, Kacaniklic, Boateng, Parker, Kasami, Berbatov, Bent
-

Prediction:
West Ham are 17th in the table after 2-4-6 (9-14). Bad form in the league after 5 games in a row without a win (2 draws and 3 loses) and 2 loses in a row 1-3 vs Norwich and 0-3 vs Chelsea. Fulham are 18th in the table after 3-1-8 (11-21). Weak form with 4 loses in a row in the league – 0-2 vs Southampton, 1-3 vs Man United, 0-4 vs Liverpool and 1-2 vs Swansea and 5 loses in a row in all competitions. Against West Ham, they are not very good in the last years, so I expect a home win.

West Ham – Fulham
Betting Tips: West Ham to win @ 1,95

Here we look foreign versions of the risk bet. Again, of course, that risk is always perceived subjectively.

Therefore, there is no strict and general subdivision in the sector risk bets. This increased risk is rewarded with stunning quotas or set out winnings. In addition, this often one million euros, dollars, or more. It is therefore very attractive to take a bet of this type, but one should always be aware of how big the opportunities are. Most likely this is done, of course, with knowledge of the betting offer.

Of course, risk bets are located not only in Germany. Rather, it is just in the UK and in the U.S., still offered a much larger supply of risk bets. This may depend, among other things together with the national mentality, which can be explained by the increased need to make a quick buck. In summary, the demand is therefore tend to increase, which then reflected on the offer down.

Since the German offer was indeed illuminated to risk betting articles I, now is the international offering in the focus of our analysis. Mainly on the U.S. to American pick-bets are received, but English peculiarities are briefly outlined. Here, however, a number of similarities to the famous German versions are diagnosed, which allows for detailed analysis superfluous.

At this point, like one or the other issues for which he must be informed about the foreign betting offer. We obviously want to force anyone. The ever-growing range of bookmakers make the international betting market but always available. Therefore, it is not a mistake to deal with the offer that can just as easily be used, as is the case with the national supply. Just friends of risk bets come at U.S. providers often appear at their expense.

Scoop 6bet in the UK

In fact, it is this is a popular option, but this is nothing more than the German Top 6 bet. So it must be said, the winner of six races of the day before, so that a considerable gain can be plugged. However, it should be mentioned once more that the underlying risk is very high.

Pick-bets from the United States of America

The pick-bets in the U.S. all the rage and always part of the program. Here the risk of betting in horse sports have also a very far-reaching tradition. It starts usually with the Pick 3-bet, and the winner of three races, which directly follow each, must be predicted.

The other pick-betting work on the same system. Most are also the betting Pick 4, Pick 5 and Pick 6 of the party. The latter is also interesting in terms of the principles set out winnings. However, these are often at all pick betting is the case, saving the computation with quotas. The Pick 6 bet is thus frequently dated in prizes in the millions. The big win totals make these bets, of course, extremely popular.

You are probably already familiar with the basics of betting program. This is also important. Herein lies the special art of betting behaviour. You need only just to pull this cut between rates and risk properly. This is always a question of conscience, since this point is not universally defined. Of course, it is always important to keep yourself in control of their own operations, because the gambling is the greatest enemy of rationality.

The transformation of the betting behaviour

Previously, only bet on the racetracks themselves. Bettors have gathered long before the event on the web and the horses and jockeys. They hoped thus to get a better picture of the daily form. Our own observation is subjective, what they should not devalue, but again is of the so-called gut decisions mentioned. Here it is also important not to be misled by confusing feelings about risky operations.

Of course, you should be comfortable with the decision what you have.Recent developments, however, on return this form of betting. More and more applications are made online, which upset many old bettors. On the other hand, it also has advantages that the betting line has moved largely in the virtual world.

Why the international betting is important?

Regardless of how one evaluates the self-development of equestrian sport, it is a big deal. Foreign bookmakers keep interesting betting offers and rates. In this competition, the friend just as easy to access, as is the case with national betting.

Winning bet

How you can bet internationally? Forms, as well as these of the national counterpart, can to be based for numerous combinations and should always be selected carefully. It never hurts to watch the selected horse in terms of its legend and study the respective race card carefully. The second major, international betting is the place bet. It has a smaller proportion than is the case for the win bet.

Nevertheless, they win if the chosen horse is the first or second. The show bet extended this fact further. This bet was completed, the selected horse reach the third place and the bet is won. Win, Place and Show can also be combined. If the horse first, all three bets won. In case of a second place there are still two bets, and even with a third place you do not go from completely empty, since in this case is still the show-bet has been won.

The betting line on German racetracks is extremely diverse. However, there are a number of basic bets,which are available at each venue. It therefore makes sense only once to provide an overview and to become familiar with the betting line.

For one nasty surprise are based on ignorance, and thus avoided the other hand can we increase the gain with skilful combinations. The mother of all betting is of course the win bet, in the later race winner is predicted. Win bets are combined with any other bets, so although the risk increases, the rate also.

Even the basic offering of bettors is the place bet, when you do not have to be so specific because the place bet is a bet type option. The horse on which this form of betting should be placed, in the later course of the race finish in the top three positions, so the bet is considered as successfully completed.

Unlike other betting services, which will be described later, it does not matter at the place bet. Rather, it is essential whether the horse is desired, first, second as and third. A combination with risk, however, is the two-bet. Non-professionals could say, that almost is a combination of two winning bets.

For any starting, the bet is lost. The situation is similar with the three-bet. In this variation in risk, is even one set on it, because here both the winner of the race, as well as the runner-up and third place winner will be told exactly in advance? Thus, the offer that there actually is on every racetrack in Germany, completed.

Nevertheless, there are many more betting opportunities that are represented also relatively common. This is discussed in more detail elsewhere. A clever combination it is always important for a successful betting behaviour and, therefore, it should be carefully studied. With one or another clever trick can thus exponentially increase the rate for risk. It therefore makes sense always to keep your eyes on, and constantly to calculate all possible combinations of inputs and outputs.